1.Motorized and intelligent vehicles will become the main kinetic energy for the growth of the PCB industry
According to the latest IC Insights forecast, the market size of ICs for automobiles and other vehicles was 22.9 billion U.S. dollars in 2016, an increase of 11% year-on-year. Estimated sales in 2017 reached 28 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 22% year-on-year; sales in 2018 increased to 32.4 billion U.S. dollars. , a year-on-year growth of 16%; the market size is expected to grow to 42.9 billion U.S. dollars by 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.4%.
The driving dynamics of various emerging automotive electronics applications, such as assisted driving ADAS systems, battery management BMS systems for electric vehicles, central control panels for automotive intelligence, and reversing images, are strong. Regardless of whether the automobile is a traditional or new energy source in the future, the intelligent, entertaining, and information-based automobiles are an inevitable trend. The two major trends of electrification and intelligence will lead to a dramatic increase in the use of electronic components, and the deployment of electronic components in automobiles. The proportion will be higher and higher. As the "mother of electronic products", the automotive PCB industry has benefited from the automotive electronics trend.
At present, the degree of electronicization of traditional automobiles is not high, the demand for PCB is small, and the amount of PCB value is also relatively low. According to the PCB network data, PCB accounts for about 2% of the total cost of electronic devices. The average PCB usage per vehicle is about 1 square meter, and the value is 60 US dollars. The amount of high-end models is 2-3 square meters. The value is 120-130 US dollars. However, as the car becomes more intelligent and entertaining, these functions are becoming more and more complicated, which makes the demand for traditional PCBs not only increase in terms of usage (layers), but also the demand for quality and high-end boards.
2. New energy vehicles drastically push PCB demand
Compared with traditional automobiles, new energy vehicles have a significant increase in PCB demand due to their unique power system. The cost of electronic devices in traditional limousines is about 25%, and in new energy vehicles it is 45%-65%.
The increase in the value of automotive PCBs brought by new energy vehicles includes two parts, namely the incremental increase brought about by hybrid vehicles and the incremental increase brought by pure electric vehicles. In general, whether the hybrid or pure electric, the specific source of PCB increments are mainly the three major power control systems (BMS, VCU and MCU):
The main control circuit in the battery management system (BMS) uses about 0.24 square meters of PCB, the unit price can be as high as 20,000 yuan/square meter, and the amount of PCB management unit is 3-5 square meters.
The control circuit in the vehicle control unit (VCU) uses about 0.03 square meters of PCB;
The amount of PCB used by the control circuit in the motor controller (MCU) is about 0.15 square meters.
Different control units have different requirements for the PCB board. The price of the products is quite different. The PCB used by the VCU and the MCU is an ordinary board. The added value is not high, and the price is around RMB 1,000/square meter. The overall estimation is that the total vehicle PCB usage is between 5-8 square meters, and the added value is about 4,000 yuan, which is much higher than traditional cars.
National policies strongly support the development of the new energy automotive market. According to the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap” plan, China’s sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 7% of the total sales of automobiles in 2020, and this proportion will reach 20% in 2025 and 40% in 2030. The energy auto market space is still huge. On the whole, we believe that under the dual drive of policies and markets, the new energy automobile market in China will continue to develop rapidly.
From 2015 to 2017, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 37.9, 51.7, and 79.4 million vehicles respectively. Taking into account factors such as policy objectives, system of points, and sales plans of auto companies, it is conservatively expected that domestic new energy vehicle output will be 100% from 2018 to 2020, respectively. With 120, and 1.5 million vehicles, the corresponding market penetration will gradually increase to about 5%. Based on this measure, by 2020, new energy vehicles will bring at least 6 billion yuan in market growth to the domestic auto board market. According to the statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 6 million by 2020. As a result, new energy vehicles will bring about 24 billion market increments to the global automotive panel market.
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