Before 2000, more than 70% of global PCB production was distributed in the Americas (mainly North America), Europe, and Japan. Since entering the 21st century, the focus of the PCB industry has continued to shift to Asia. At present, the PCB output value in Asia is close to 90% of the world, especially in China and Southeast Asia. Since 2006, China has surpassed Japan to become the world’s largest PCB producer, with PCB production and output ranking first in the world. In recent years, the global economy is undergoing a period of in-depth adjustment. The leading role of major economies such as Europe, the United States, and Japan in the world's economic growth has significantly weakened. The growth of the PCB market has been limited or even shrinking; while the degree of integration between China and the global economy has gradually increased, gradually Occupy half of the global PCB market. As the largest producer in the global PCB industry, China's share of global PCB industry output has increased from 31.18% in 2008 to 50.53% in 2017.
Global PCB market
In 2016, the global PCB industry presented three major characteristics: weak demand, new technology, and raw material price increases. According to Prismark data, the market size of the PCB in 2016 was US$54.207 billion, which was 2% lower than the same period of last year. The number of PCBs except China declined. The first is the declining demand growth of PCs, tablet PCs, and high-end smart phones. According to Gartner's latest data, the Q3 global PC industry continued to decline, with total shipments of 67 million units falling by 3.6% year-on-year; secondly, Apple’s iphone7’s A10 processor was used first. Non-package substrate Fo-WLP package has greatly impacted the development of the package substrate market. Manufacturers such as Japan Ibiden and South Korea's Samsung Motors large-scale IC package substrate also face the problem of seeking new development in the PCB market. (Prismark) The sudden increase in raw materials prices, the highest increase in copper prices in 2016 reached 37.7%.
Japan's high-tech high barriers
According to data from the Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industry Association, as of July 2017, the total output value of the Japanese electronics industry fell from 2.67 trillion yen (approximately 157.5 billion yuan) in March 2000 to 936.7 billion yen (approximately 553 percent). Billion RMB, about 1/3 of the original. We believe that the following are the main reasons: First, external factors, 1) The impact of the global financial crisis in 2008, Japan’s e-industry’s disdain for superiority, and the sharp decline in overseas market demand, while the appreciation of the yen is even worse; 2) The rapid rise of international competitors has squeezed the growth space of the Japanese electronics industry. South Korea's Samsung, LG and other companies gradually gained technical advantages through government policy support, technology, and the introduction of talents. Local and Taiwanese electronics companies have continued to grow due to their advantages in cost, geography, and policies. The Japanese electronics industry has been besieged. Second, internal factors, Japanese companies focus on achieving the ultimate in subdivided areas, and in the provision of integrated solutions, responding to customer needs and the changes in the market, etc., are weak, and the industrial chain is inflexible.
With the declining manufacturing scale in Japan's electronics industry, PCB as its basic component has also shown a downward trend. Although Japan still occupies a technological advantage in high-end HDI, FPC and carrier boards, its overall share gradually shrinks. As of January 2018, the output of printed circuit boards (PCBs; hard boards + soft boards + module substrates) in Japan decreased by 3.7% compared to the same month last year to 1.147 million square meters, which was the first consecutive month of decline; the corresponding rigid board (Rigid PCB) production fell 0.8% to 811,000m2 in the same month of last year, showing a 2nd decline in 3 months; Flexible PCB production decreased 13.6% to 273,000m2, the eighth consecutive Month contraction; output fell 3.1% to 4.627 billion yen, the first decline in three months; module substrate (Module Substrates) production growth, growth of 9.0% to 62,000 square meters, the first 15 months of consecutive rise The output grew by 8.7% to 8.722 billion yen.
Although Japanese companies have an absolute leading edge in terms of technology, Japanese PCB manufacturers' operating margins have been low in the past few years. In addition to automotive boards, Japanese companies gradually withdrew from rigid PCBs, and traditional competitive products FPCs and IC carriers gradually declined. According to Morgan data, five major Japanese FPC vendors (NOK, SEI, and Fujikura) accounted for more than 70% of their shares five years ago. The decline in profitability made NOK and SEI unable to invest in FPC business. Currently, Japanese companies’ share in Apple FPC is only About 50%.
According to Prismark's research, the output value of PCBs in mainland China in 2016 was USD 27.104 billion, which was the only region in the world where growth was achieved. The global share increased from 8% in 2000 to 50% year-on-year, with the gradual shift of production capacity to the domestic market. It will take at least 2 years for Chinese manufacturers to become manufacturers of high-end PCB products, but from the medium and long-term perspective, sufficient domestic financial support will make local manufacturers become the mainstay of the PCB industry. The domestic companies with pure domestic capital are relatively small, but their growth rate is much higher than that of their peers. The industry concentration gradually increases. Listed companies increase their market share through investment and mergers and acquisitions in the capital market. Although the competitiveness of most domestic PCB manufacturers still lies in the low-end products, some manufacturers have gradually entered the supply chain of major international customer Apple, such as Dongshan Precision's acquisition of US FPC manufacturer MFLX, becoming the supplier of Apple's wireless charging receiving end, Ultrasound Electronics. Involved in Apple's latest PCB business, providing SLP peripheral components.
to sum up
It is expected that in the next five years, Asia will continue to dominate the development of the global PCB market, and China will remain at the unshakeable center of the Asian market. The PCB industry in Mainland China will maintain a compound growth rate of 3.7%. It is estimated that the industrial output value in 2022 will reach 35.698 billion. Dollars. In contrast, due to the overall economic weakness, the growth of the PCB market in Japan and Europe is weak, but the global market will still maintain a compound growth of 3.2%. Under the trend of “large-scale and centralized” PCB companies, large-scale PCB companies that have established early lead advantages will gain greater advantages in the future global market competition.
Copyright © Pinsheng Electronics Co.,Ltd All Rights Reserved.