In 2017, the mainland accounted for more than 50% of the world's PCB production capacity, and PCB products fell into the US tax list, and the tariff increased from 2% to 27%. We have made some analysis and reference for the industrial impact geometry:
After several twists and turns in the Sino-US trade war, there is a possibility of further deterioration: the Sino-US trade war began on March 8, and after several rounds of negotiations, no unified opinion was reached. Finally, on June 15, the US issued a statement saying that it would impose a 25% tariff on 1,102 products with a total value of $50 billion. The future of the trade war is unpredictable and there is a possibility of further deterioration. The Japanese-US trade war is a reference, and the trade war is difficult to change the industrial logic: the Japanese-American trade war lasted for 30 years. Involved in the industry from textiles, steel to color TV, automotive and semiconductors. Take the automobile industry as an example. In the 12 years after the United States imposed a 100% tariff on a $5.99 billion trade-sized luxury sedan in 1995, the Japanese auto industry has started a rapid growth rate of more than 8%. The industry has not been traded. And stop rising.
PCB capacity will migrate to China, benefiting 5G in the next four years and global growth rate of automotive electronics will increase to 1.94%: From 2008 to 2017, the global share of PCB output in China will continue to rise, and the market share will increase from 31.11% in 2008 to 2017. 50.82%, the output value of China's PCB industry increased from US$15.037 billion to US$28.093 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.45%, far exceeding the global growth rate of 1.35%. In the next four years, benefiting from the construction of 5G base stations and the increase in demand for automotive electronics, the global industry compound growth rate will increase to 1.94%.
The overall PCB industry has limited impact on trade wars. In extreme cases, it affects less than 3%. In recent years, China’s exports of PCBs to the United States have remained at around US$600 million. As China’s PCB output has grown steadily, it has accounted for US PCB trade. In that year, the proportion of China's PCB output value declined. China's export of PCB trade to the United States accounted for an increase in the proportion of China's total PCB exports in that year, from 5.01% in 2008 to 6.39% in 2016, but it accounted for less than 3% of the overall domestic output.
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